XRP Eyes Q4 Breakout as Market Reset Hints at 85% Upside

XRP’s recent downtrend may be nearing exhaustion as multiple data points hint at a potential rebound of up to 85% heading into the final quarter of 2025.

Over the past month and a half, XRP has slid nearly 20%, consolidating near $2.70 within a descending triangle. While this structure traditionally carries bearish risks, futures and onchain data show the market may be primed for recovery.

Open interest in XRP futures has dropped sharply from $11 billion to $7.5 billion, signaling that speculative excess has cooled. At the same time, Binance’s estimated leverage ratio has reset to its yearly average, reducing the chance of cascading liquidations that often follow overheated markets.

Accumulation signals are also surfacing. Net taker volume has moved closer to neutral, while cumulative volume delta trends suggest spot buyers are stepping in. Funding rates have normalized as well, reflecting a healthier balance between longs and shorts.

Technical analysis further reinforces the bullish case. A fair value gap between $2.35 and $2.65 overlaps with key Fibonacci retracement levels, creating a potential launchpad for price recovery. Historical fractal patterns suggest that if support holds, XRP could see gains of 60%–85% in Q4, with targets near $4.80.

Analysts emphasize that holding above $2.47 remains critical. If sustained, XRP’s current pullback could transform into the foundation for its next major rally.