Solana Falls Below $200 as ETF Decision Looms Large

Solana slipped under the $200 mark on Thursday, erasing its recent rally to $253 in just a week. The nearly 20% drop has unsettled traders, but all eyes are now on a major catalyst: the first deadline for a spot Solana ETF ruling on October 10.

ETF Could Spark Institutional Momentum

The decision on Grayscale’s spot Solana ETF could prove pivotal for the asset’s next growth phase. Unlike smaller staking-focused ETFs, a direct spot product would open the door for institutional capital inflows, potentially reshaping liquidity and adoption similar to Bitcoin and Ethereum after their ETF approvals.

The SEC is also reviewing multiple other applications, with final deadlines approaching by mid-October. Analysts note that while Bitcoin and Ethereum enjoy significant institutional holdings, Solana’s share is still below 1% — suggesting major upside if funds begin allocating.

Technical Picture Shows Mixed Signals

From a technical standpoint, Solana’s pullback has placed it within a key demand zone between $200 and $185, aligning with a Fibonacci retracement band often associated with rebounds. If buyers defend this range, Solana could resume its uptrend. A deeper drop below $185, however, may shift momentum toward $170–$156.

On shorter timeframes, oversold readings on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggest that sellers may be running out of steam. Historically, similar setups have preceded quick recoveries, raising the possibility of a short-term bounce even as the broader correction unfolds. With ETF speculation heating up and technical levels in play, Solana’s next move could set the tone for Q4.