Crypto Market Stabilizes as Downtrend Eases: What Could Drive the Next Rally?

Bitcoin Holds Above Key Support as Analysts Weigh Macro Catalysts for the Next Move. After weeks of volatility, the cryptocurrency market is showing signs of stabilization. Bitcoin (BTC) climbed back above crucial resistance levels, sparking cautious optimism that the worst of the recent downtrend may be over. Analysts, however, remain divided on whether the current calm marks the start of a recovery or just a pause before another leg down.

Market Sentiment Shifts as BTC Regains Support

According to the latest Bitfinex Alpha report, Bitcoin’s slow but steady rebound reflects growing resilience across crypto markets. The report notes that BTC spent most of last week below the short-term holders’ (STH) cost basis of $113,600, a key metric that often acts as a dividing line between bullish and bearish momentum.

The asset’s climb back above this level coincided with progress in U.S.–China tariff discussions, which helped ease broader market stress. However, analysts warn that Bitcoin must maintain support above $113,600 to confirm a structural shift from defensive trading to a sustainable uptrend.

If BTC drops back below this line, historical trends suggest a potential correction toward $97,500—a level corresponding to the 0.75 quantile zone, which has previously marked the final stages of major consolidations. Analysts argue that such a retracement, while painful, could signal capitulation and the end of selling pressure, laying the groundwork for the next bullish cycle.

Macro Forces Shape Market Direction

Broader macroeconomic factors are increasingly influencing crypto price action. Volatility in oil prices and foreign exchange markets, particularly the weakening Japanese yen, has reshaped global liquidity flows. Analysts believe these developments are prompting institutional investors to reconsider their exposure to traditional assets like equities and bonds—and to redirect capital toward digital assets.

Bitfinex experts suggest that as traditional markets adjust to shifting energy prices and trade policies, Bitcoin could benefit as a liquidity hedge, potentially setting the stage for renewed upside momentum heading into the next quarter.

While short-term corrections remain possible, the combination of stabilizing technicals and macro tailwinds has led several analysts to describe the current market as a reset phase before the next rally.