Bitcoin Stuck Below $116K as Analysts Eye Fed Decision and Q4 Rally Potential

Bitcoin (BTC) is struggling to break through resistance at $116,000, with Bitfinex analysts warning that the level will remain a barrier until it is “decisively reclaimed.”

$116K Resistance Holds Firm

BTC has been trading near the top of its recent range, but momentum has cooled since its mid-August all-time high of $124,100. According to Bitfinex, many of the investors who bought in the $108,000–$116,000 zone are now underwater, adding selling pressure whenever prices approach resistance.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $116,370, up 4.3% over the past week, per CoinMarketCap data.

Fed Rate Cut Looms

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision on Wednesday could provide a catalyst for Bitcoin’s next move. Markets currently price in a 96% chance of a 25 basis point cut, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee believes the cut could spark a “monster move” for both Bitcoin and Ether in Q4. Others, however, are cautious: analyst Ted suggested BTC may first dip to $104,000—or even $92,000—before mounting a fresh rally.

Mixed Market Sentiment

Historically, Fed rate cuts are bullish for risk assets, but analysts caution that crypto markets may sell off if the move is already priced in. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently shows “Neutral” at 53, reflecting this uncertainty.

Q4 Could Be the Turning Point

Despite near-term headwinds, October could serve as a key turning point. Since 2013, Bitcoin has averaged returns of over 85% in Q4, according to CoinGlass. Bitfinex analysts added that while short-term sellers continue to weigh on the market, long-term holders remain confident, with many using the recent dip to $107,400 as an opportunity to accumulate.