Bitcoin May Be Near Its Final Shakeout as Market Cycle Resembles Early 2025 Pattern

Bitcoin has found temporary stability around the $91,500 level after a steep pullback, and some analysts now see strong similarities to the pattern that unfolded in early 2025. At that time, Bitcoin topped in January and slipped roughly 17% while the S&P 500 continued to rally. Many assumed BTC was undergoing a routine cooldown, but weeks later equities also rolled over, triggering a broader market correction in which Bitcoin fell 25% and the S&P 500 lost more than 20%.

According to market observers, the current setup looks almost identical. After peaking on October 6, Bitcoin has already dropped about 18%, while the S&P 500 has only recently started to soften. If the cycle repeats, Bitcoin tends to lead the downturn, equities lag, and then both markets sell off together before BTC stabilizes earlier than stocks. Analysts believe the market is now entering the middle stages of this sequence, suggesting that much of Bitcoin’s downside may be behind it, although a final shakeout remains possible.

Several macro factors could act as the catalyst for that last push lower. Rising Japanese government bond yields have added pressure to global liquidity conditions, while smaller US banks continue to face balance-sheet stress. Market fragility has also increased sensitivity to political headlines, making investors quicker to de-risk with minimal warning. These slow-moving risks can remain quiet before abruptly triggering volatility, which has some analysts cautioning that one more sharp move lower should not be ruled out.

Despite some stabilization, broader Bitcoin market structure still leans bearish. Short-term indicators have improved modestly, with certain sentiment gauges lifting from deeply negative readings, but they remain below key thresholds that would signal a true shift in trend. Meanwhile, structural indicators continue to weaken, showing that underlying selling pressure has not yet fully eased.

One of the clearest signs is the drop in Coinbase’s premium over Binance, which has fallen to one of its lowest levels of the year. This points to reduced institutional participation—an important driver during major accumulation phases. With retail trading dominating price action, volatility can increase while the market waits for larger buyers to re-enter.

Even so, analysts generally agree that Bitcoin is closer to the end of this corrective phase than the beginning. A final flush lower is still possible, but the broader cycle suggests that recovery conditions are starting to form beneath the surface.